The Platts pre-report analyst survey suggests US EIA data will show a 98 to 103 Bcf reduction in natural gas stocks for the latest reporting week Washington, DC - March 4, 2009 The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday is expected to report a reduction of between 98 billion cubic feet (Bcf) and 103 Bcf in natural gas storage inventories for the week that ended Friday, February 27, according to a Platts survey of analysts. A drawdown within expectations would be smaller than last year's 139-Bcf pull and the five-year-average withdrawal of 121 Bcf, according to EIA. As a result, the 233-Bcf surplus over last year and the 199-Bcf surplus over the five-year average are expected to expand. A withdrawal below average or below expectations could push natural gas prices lower because it means more gas is available for consumption during the winter heating season. The broader range of analyst expectations for the latest reporting period ranged from withdrawals of 80 Bcf to 140 Bcf. FirstEnergy Capital analyst Martin King said it is becoming increasingly likely that storage inventories will end the withdrawal season April 1 at a much higher-than-average 1.6 trillion cubic feet or greater -- largely the result of weak gas demand due to the economy. "Our estimate for this loss has been hovering in the 5 to 6 Bcf/d range for the past few weeks, and we very conservatively estimate that non-weather-related demand weakness has resulted in storage withdrawals being about 250 Bcf less over January and February than what otherwise would have been the case," he said.
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday is expected to report a reduction of between 98 billion cubic feet (Bcf) and 103 Bcf in natural gas storage inventories for the week that ended Friday, February 27, according to a Platts survey of analysts.
A drawdown within expectations would be smaller than last year's 139-Bcf pull and the five-year-average withdrawal of 121 Bcf, according to EIA. As a result, the 233-Bcf surplus over last year and the 199-Bcf surplus over the five-year average are expected to expand.
A withdrawal below average or below expectations could push natural gas prices lower because it means more gas is available for consumption during the winter heating season.
The broader range of analyst expectations for the latest reporting period ranged from withdrawals of 80 Bcf to 140 Bcf.
FirstEnergy Capital analyst Martin King said it is becoming increasingly likely that storage inventories will end the withdrawal season April 1 at a much higher-than-average 1.6 trillion cubic feet or greater -- largely the result of weak gas demand due to the economy.
"Our estimate for this loss has been hovering in the 5 to 6 Bcf/d range for the past few weeks, and we very conservatively estimate that non-weather-related demand weakness has resulted in storage withdrawals being about 250 Bcf less over January and February than what otherwise would have been the case," he said.