The Platts pre-report analyst survey of EIA/API estimates suggests a draw of 1 million barrels in US oil stocks
Platts Survey of Analysts
- Crude oil stocks down 1 million barrels
- Gasoline stocks down 1.2 million barrels
- Distillates stocks up 700,000 barrels
- Refinery utilization or run rate unchanged at 83.1%
New York, NY - March 9, 2009
Analysts expect a drawdown of 1 million barrels in U.S. commercial crude oil stocks to be reflected in this week's oil inventory data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the American Petroleum Institute (API), a Platts survey showed Monday.
The API is due to release its data at 4:30 pm EDT Tuesday, having moved the release forward from a historic 10:30 am EDT Wednesday issuance. EIA continues to release its weekly oil statistics at 10:30 am EDT on Wednesdays.
"Assuming crude imports steadied out at about 9 million barrels per day (b/d) with no change in refinery inputs, there will likely be another drop in commercial crude stocks" said Linda Rafield, Platts senior oil analyst and editor of the weekly Platts Futures and Derivatives Review. "Ongoing additions to the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) will keep barrels off the commercial market, which can only be countered or offset by an influx of imports," Rafield said. For the week ended February 27, EIA reported 732,000 barrels of crude oil were added to the SPR, cutting into the supply available for commercial use.
Based on last week's EIA data, refinery utilization for the current reporting period will likely be unchanged at 83.1%, as some refinery restarts along the Gulf Coast are offset by the start of maintenance at other facilities.
Analysts project a 1.2-million barrel decline in gasoline stocks, reflecting a relatively low level of output and a noteworthy recovery in demand. Gasoline demand on a four-week moving average, at 9.032 million b/d the week ending February 27, was 2.2% above year-ago levels, according to the EIA.
A 700,000-barrel build is anticipated for middle distillate stocks. "Weak demand has enabled a counter-seasonal build in middle distillate stocks, but inventory increases will likely be tempered by reduced refinery output on the heels of deteriorating margins," Rafield explained.