The Platts pre-report analyst survey suggests US EIA data will show a 100 to 105 Bcf reduction in natural gas stocks for the latest reporting week Washington, DC - March 11, 2009 The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday is expected to report a reduction of between 100 billion cubic feet (Bcf) and 105 Bcf in natural gas storage inventories for the week that ended Friday, March 6, according to a Platts survey of analysts. A drawdown within those expectations would be smaller than last year's 113-Bcf pull, but larger than the five-year-average withdrawal of 91 Bcf, according to EIA. As a result, the 270-Bcf surplus over last year should expand slightly, while the surplus over the five-year average of 218 Bcf will likely contract. A withdrawal above average or above expectations could push natural gas prices higher because it means less gas is available for consumption during the remainder of the winter heating season. The broader range of analyst expectations for the latest reporting period ranged from withdrawals of 90 Bcf to 135 Bcf. Citi Futures Perspective analyst Tim Evans expects Thursday's report to be supportive of gas prices, at least in the short term. But he noted the possibility of much smaller withdrawals over the next two weeks as the winter draws to a close. "We think this leaves gas prices vulnerable to further downside erosion in the weeks ahead, although we don't expect sharp declines since the market is already cheap," Evans said.
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday is expected to report a reduction of between 100 billion cubic feet (Bcf) and 105 Bcf in natural gas storage inventories for the week that ended Friday, March 6, according to a Platts survey of analysts.
A drawdown within those expectations would be smaller than last year's 113-Bcf pull, but larger than the five-year-average withdrawal of 91 Bcf, according to EIA. As a result, the 270-Bcf surplus over last year should expand slightly, while the surplus over the five-year average of 218 Bcf will likely contract.
A withdrawal above average or above expectations could push natural gas prices higher because it means less gas is available for consumption during the remainder of the winter heating season.
The broader range of analyst expectations for the latest reporting period ranged from withdrawals of 90 Bcf to 135 Bcf.
Citi Futures Perspective analyst Tim Evans expects Thursday's report to be supportive of gas prices, at least in the short term. But he noted the possibility of much smaller withdrawals over the next two weeks as the winter draws to a close.
"We think this leaves gas prices vulnerable to further downside erosion in the weeks ahead, although we don't expect sharp declines since the market is already cheap," Evans said.