The Platts pre-report analyst survey of EIA/API estimates suggests a build of 2 million barrels in US oil stocks
Platts Survey of Analysts
- Crude oil stocks up 2 million barrels
- Gasoline stocks down 2.1 million barrels
- Distillates stocks up 400,000 barrels
- Refinery utilization or run rate unchanged at 82.7%
New York, NY - March 16, 2009
Analysts expect a 2-million-barrel build in U.S. commercial crude oil stocks to be reflected in this week's oil inventory data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the American Petroleum Institute (API), a Platts survey showed Monday.
The API is due to release its data at 4:30 pm EDT Tuesday, having moved the release forward from a historic 10:30 am Eastern Time issuance on Wednesdays. EIA continues to release its weekly oil statistics at 10:30 am ET on Wednesdays.
A combination of low refinery run rates and the potential for an increase in imports would suggest a build in U.S. commercial crude stocks. "With the contango at the front of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) crude curve narrowing, floating storage will likely make its way onto land," said Linda Rafield, Platts senior oil analyst and editor of the weekly Platts Futures and Derivatives Review. Contango is the industry vernacular for the condition whereby prices of crude oil for nearby delivery are lower than prices for future-month delivery.
Analysts expect refinery utilization to remain unchanged at 82.7% based on last week's EIA data, with some refinery restarts offset by other facilities which are only now beginning their maintenance activities.
Gasoline stocks were projected by analysts to decline 2.1 million barrels. "Given low refiner production as a result of a weak RBOB crack spread two months ago, the likelihood is that output of distillate may still outpace that for gasoline," Rafield said.
Analysts anticipate a 400,000-barrel build in distillate inventories. The small build is likely to be the result of a relatively high level of production combined with a low level of demand.