Platts analysis of U.S. EIA oil stocks data: U.S. crude oil stocks climb to 18.5-year high

New York, NY - April 15, 2009

U.S. commercial crude stocks climbed another 5.671 million barrels to 366.743 million barrels, reaching an 18.5-year high, as refinery inputs dropped further amidst steady import activity, an analysis of the weekly oil data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed Wednesday.

At 366.743 million barrels, U.S. commercial crude stocks were 45.587 million barrels above the five-year average and 53.083 million barrels above year-ago levels.

Stocks swelled in every region with one exception: inventories at the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) futures contract delivery point in Cushing, Oklahoma, where inventories fell another 800,000 barrels to 29.2 million barrels. Despite the decline at Cushing, stocks in the Midwest were up 1.3 million barrels at 84.9 million barrels. East of the Rockies, in what is commonly referred to as the refining heartland of America, U.S. crude stocks jumped 3.2 million barrels.

While commercial crude stocks continued a seemingly endless rise, another 1.3 million barrels of crude oil were deposited in the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (the nation's safety net of oil supply).

Contributing to the crude stock build was a drop of 300,000 barrels per day (b/d) to 13.987 million (b/d) in refinery inputs. At the same time crude imports edged up 59,000 b/d to 9.391 million b/d.

Refiner demand for crude barrels remained at abnormally low levels as a result of weak demand readings in the United States. Total U.S. oil demand dropped back below 19 million b/d, slipping to 18.722 million b/d, or down 5.2% year-over-year. Total U.S. oil demand was down 0.8 percentage points from the EIA's previous weekly report.

Demand for almost every product slid from the previous report with the exception of middle distillates.

Implied demand for middle distillates, at 3.854 million b/d, was down 6.7% year-over-year, an improvement of 0.5 percentage points from the previous report. Implied demand is the amount of product that moves through the U.S. distribution system, not actual end consumption. But week-over-week, implied distillate demand dropped 296,000 b/d to 3.769 million b/d. Regardless, the inventory of middle distillates fell 1.17 million barrels to 139.6 million barrels. Heating oil stocks dipped 700,000 barrels to 36.3 million barrels and diesel stocks fell 800,000 barrels to 82.7 million barrels.

At 139.6 million barrels, distillate stocks were an imposing 30.443 million barrels above the five-year average and 33.55 million barrels above year-ago levels.

Gasoline demand also slid, falling 80,000 b/d to 8.944 million b/d week-over-week. On a four-week-moving-average basis, inventories were 9.048 million b/d. That's down 0.4% year over year, and a decline of 0.2 percentage points from last week's EIA report. Despite the decline in gasoline demand, stocks fell 944,000 barrels to 216.5 million barrels. Despite the 944,000 barrel draw in gasoline stocks, the surplus against the five-year average widened while the deficit against year-ago levels turned to a surplus.

At 216.505 million barrels, gasoline stocks were 11.313 million barrels above the five-year average and 754,000 barrels above year-ago levels.