The Platts pre-report analyst survey suggests U.S. EIA data will show a 97 to 102 Bcf build to natural gas stocks

Washington - May 13, 2009

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday is expected to report an addition of between 97 and 102 billion cubic feet (Bcf) to natural gas storage inventories for the week that ended Friday, May 8, according to a Platts survey of analysts.

A build within those expectations would come in larger than last year's 89-Bcf injection and the five-year-average build of 83 Bcf, according to EIA. As a result, both the 491-Bcf surplus over last year and 362-Bcf surplus over the five-year average should expand.

The wider range of analyst expectations spanned from injections of 88 Bcf to 104 Bcf. EIA estimated a 95-Bcf injection for the week ended May 1.

Martin King, vice president of institutional research at FirstEnergy Capital, said he expects the report to show an injection of 103 Bcf, making the first triple-digit build of the non-heating season.

"Temperatures across the whole nation moderated nicely, compared to the previous week when conditions were similar except for the West, where it was rather cool," he said. "This time, no such thing, and we expect that the complete lack of stress on the natural gas grid should generate robust injections for the next several weeks, at a minimum."

King also noted that power sector demand for gas decreased last week as nuclear power plant maintenance cycles came to an end.

"Even a much more modest injection than we are forecasting should push overall storage levels through 2 Tcf [trillion cubic feet] with the next report," he said. "This will be the second highest storage level for this time of year since the same week ending in May 2006. The estimated April 2009 exit for storage at 1.904 Tcf is the highest since the end of April 2006."