The Platts pre-report analyst survey of EIA/API estimates suggests a draw of 1.8 million barrels in US oil stocks
Platts Survey of Analysts
- Crude oil stocks down 1.8 million barrels
- Gasoline stocks down 1.5 million barrels
- Distillates stocks up 1.1 million barrels
- Refinery utilization, or run rate, down 0.7 percentage points to 86.5%
New York, NY - September 8, 2009
Analysts expect weekly U.S. oil data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the American Petroleum Institute (API) to show a decline in commercial crude stocks of 1.8 million barrels for the reporting week ended September 4, a Platts survey showed Tuesday.
API is scheduled to release its data at 4:30 pm EDT (2030 GMT) Wednesday. The EIA report is to be released at 10:30 am EDT (1430 GMT) Thursday. Both releases were delayed due to the U.S. Labor Day holiday this past Monday.
“An even-larger increase in crude imports would be needed to prevent a stock draw given the current rate of refinery inputs and domestic production,” said Linda Rafield, senior oil analyst and editor of the weekly Platts Futures and Derivatives Review, published as a supplement to Platts Oilgram Price Report. While analysts expect refinery inputs to drop 0.7 percentage points to 86.5%, unwinding some of the previous week's 3.1 percentage-point increase, the decline will not be enough to prevent another inventories decline.
“Crude imports will likely remain steady at about 9.5 million barrels per day (b/d), particularly with the front-month oil futures spread on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) continuing to narrow; the stronger the price spread, the likelier it is that floating storage will be offloaded to lock in profits against the board,” said Rafield.
Analysts anticipate a 1.5 million-barrel decline in gasoline stocks. The recent climb in demand combined with movement of summer-grade gasoline through the distribution system to make way for winter grade suggests another stock draw.
Inventories of middle distillates are expected to build another 1.1 million barrels, a seasonal occurrence. “The current stock-building trend in middle distillates is apt to continue for another three weeks before the crop harvesting season begins and diesel inventories begin to decline,” Rafield said.