The Platts pre-report analyst survey suggests U.S. EIA data will show a 66- to 70-Bcf build to natural gas stocks for the latest reporting week
Washington - September 23, 2009
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday is expected to report an addition of between 66 and 70 billion cubic feet (Bcf) to natural gas storage inventories for the week that ended September 18, according to a Platts survey of analysts.
An injection within those expectations would be larger than last year's 54-Bcf build but in line with the five-year-average injection of 69 Bcf, according to EIA.
As a result, the existing 496-Bcf surplus over last year will likely expand and the 487-Bcf surplus over the five-year average should remain intact. An injection in line with expectations also would put overall gas storage stocks above 3.5 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) with about six weeks remaining in the injection season.
The wider range of analyst expectations spanned from builds of 65 Bcf to 78 Bcf.
"The last three injections have been smaller than expected, which has supported a rebound in prices," said Kent Bayazitoglu, director of market analytics at Gelber & Associates. "Are injections smaller due to lower production or are injections smaller due to a lack of storage availability? Both factors are in play as the market heads to record storage levels," he said.
Analysts with Societe Generale said U.S. demand dropped 1.2 Bcf per day (/d) last week to 53 Bcf/d because of seasonal temperatures, but despite maintenance and price deferrals expected for September, month-to-date production fell only 600 million cubic feet per day from August.
They further noted that production will start to rise in October when maintenance season ends.
By October 31, storage will be at 3.92 Tcf, the analysts said, noting that gas storage capacity is already utilized 92% in the producing region, 93% in the West region and 86% in the East region.
# # #
This analyst survey is conducted by Platts’ editorial team in Washington DC and is published every Wednesday morning, one day ahead of the 10:30 am (EST) Thursday release of the weekly natural gas storage report of the US Energy Information Administration. Platts has been conducting this survey since January 2007. IMPORTANT NOTE TO EDITORS: The survey results attached above do not contain commentary from a Platts staff member. The survey is conducted and prepared by the Platts market news editors, but the views are those of non-Platts market analysts. The survey includes 15 to 25 analysts, some on a rotational basis. This differs from the weekly pre-report analyst survey of EIA/API US oil stocks data conducted each week by Platts Senior Oil Analyst Linda Rafield, which does include the views of Platts’ oil analyst Linda Rafield.