The Platts pre-report analyst survey suggests U.S. EIA data will show a 66- to 64-Bcf build to natural gas stocks for the latest reporting week
Washington - September 30, 2009
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday is expected to report an addition of between 60 and 64 billion cubic feet (Bcf) to natural gas storage inventories for the week that ended September 25, according to a Platts survey of analysts.
An injection within expectations would bring storage levels to a new all-time high with five weeks remaining in the traditional injection season. As of the week ending September 18, storage was at 3.525 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) and an injection within expectations would push overall levels to between 3.585 Tcf and 3.589 Tcf. The previous record was 3.545 Tcf set the week ended November 2, 2007, according to EIA.
But an injection within projections also would be smaller than last year's 82-Bcf build and the five-year-average injection of 56 Bcf, according to EIA data. As a result, both the 509-Bcf surplus over last year and the 485-Bcf surplus over the five-year average are expected to narrow.
The broad range of analyst expectations spanned from a build of 56 Bcf to 70 Bcf. EIA estimated a 67-Bcf injection for the week ended September 18.
Many analysts expect storage levels at the end of the injection season will reach about 3.9 Tcf, and some are even starting to look ahead to the end of winter.
"Barring exceptional production declines, weather and industrial demand recovery, natural gas supplies could be at record highs exiting March," analysts with Jefferies & Co. said.
But John Kilduff, a broker with MF Global, said the idling of rigs and production over the year could put the U.S. in a precarious situation in the event of high winter demand.
"Heaters are starting to kick on overnight in the high-consumption regions, as nighttime temperatures sink into the 50s and 40s in Chicago and New York, with the official start of the season is still a month away," he said.
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This analyst survey is conducted by Platts’ editorial team in Washington DC and is published every Wednesday morning, one day ahead of the 10:30 am (EST) Thursday release of the weekly natural gas storage report of the US Energy Information Administration. Platts has been conducting this survey since January 2007. IMPORTANT NOTE TO EDITORS: The survey results attached above do not contain commentary from a Platts staff member. The survey is conducted and prepared by the Platts market news editors, but the views are those of non-Platts market analysts. The survey includes 15 to 25 analysts, some on a rotational basis. This differs from the weekly pre-report analyst survey of EIA/API US oil stocks data conducted each week by Platts Senior Oil Analyst Linda Rafield, which does include the views of Platts’ oil analyst Linda Rafield.