The Platts pre-report analyst survey suggests US EIA data will show no change or up to a 4 Bcf withdrawal in natural gas stocks for the latest reporting week
Washington - December 2, 2009
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is expected Thursday to report no change or up to a 4 billion cubic feet (Bcf) withdrawal to natural gas storage for the week ended November 27, according to a Platts survey of analysts.
A number within those expectations would compare with a 64-Bcf withdrawal last year and the five-year-average drawdown of 43 Bcf, according to EIA. As a result, the 404-Bcf surplus over last year and 442-Bcf surplus over the five-year average both should expand.
The wider range of analyst expectations ranged from a draw of 22 Bcf to an injection of 12 Bcf.
Subash Chandra, analyst at Jefferies & Company, said he expects a 12-Bcf injection to be reported based on the warm weather, rising nuclear output and a 3% sequential decline in power output on holiday-impaired demand.
"Compared to a year ago, we estimate weather demand down 9 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), power demand down 0.5 Bcf/d, and industrial demand down 1.5 Bcf/d, he said. "Adjusting for shut-ins, supply appears flat."
At the other end of the spectrum, Kent Bayazitoglu, director of market analytics at Gelber & Associates, said he expects a draw of 22 Bcf.
"Last week the market recorded the last injection of the year," he said. "The late arrival of colder weather will result in growing withdrawals for the next four weeks."
He noted that because storage is so full, withdrawals are not entirely bullish since they help alleviate the lack of available storage space. "This in turn helps more supply find its way to market," Bayazitoglu said.
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This analyst survey is conducted by Platts’ editorial team in Washington DC and is published every Wednesday morning, one day ahead of the 10:30 am (EST) Thursday release of the weekly natural gas storage report of the US Energy Information Administration. Platts has been conducting this survey since January 2007. IMPORTANT NOTE TO EDITORS: The survey results attached above do not contain commentary from a Platts staff member. The survey is conducted and prepared by the Platts market news editors, but the views are those of non-Platts market analysts. The survey includes 15 to 25 analysts, some on a rotational basis. This differs from the weekly pre-report analyst survey of EIA/API US oil stocks data conducted each week by Platts Senior Oil Analyst Linda Rafield, which does include the views of Platts’ oil analyst Linda Rafield.
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