The Platts pre-report analyst survey suggests US EIA data will show a 44 to 48 Bcf withdrawal in natural gas stocks for the latest reporting week
Washington - December 9, 2009
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is expected Thursday to report a withdrawal of 44 to 48 billion cubic feet (Bcf) in net natural gas storage for the week ended December 4, according to a Platts survey of analysts.
A drawdown within expectations would be smaller than last year’s 66 Bcf withdrawal and the five-year-average drawdown of 90 Bcf, according to EIA. As a result, the 470 Bcf surplus over last year and 487 Bcf surplus over the five-year average each should expand.
Analyst expectations ranged from drawdowns of 31 Bcf to 75 Bcf.
EIA estimated a 2 Bcf injection for the week that ended November 27.
"It looks like we will finally get a withdrawal of some magnitude with the next report," said FirstEnergy Capital analyst Martin King, who pointed to the onset of cold weather last week, in addition to the economic incentive of cash prices' trading over futures prices.
The next couple of weeks, however, "will be key to unlocking some of the mystery behind what is actually happening with the implied supply-demand balance for natural gas in the United States," King noted.
And this direction may determine whether he maintains his current $7 per Million British Thermal Units (/MMBtu) price forecast for 2010 or lowers it.
In the short-term, Citi Futures Perspective analyst Tim Evans said that while the weather is turning colder, forecasted temperatures over the next several weeks appear to match closely with temperatures over the past five years.
"As a result, we may not see all that much of a drawdown in the ... year-on-five-year average storage surplus at the end of the current cycle," he said.
# # #
This analyst survey is conducted by Platts’ editorial team in Washington DC and is published every Wednesday morning, one day ahead of the 10:30 am (EST) Thursday release of the weekly natural gas storage report of the US Energy Information Administration. Platts has been conducting this survey since January 2007. IMPORTANT NOTE TO EDITORS: The survey results attached above do not contain commentary from a Platts staff member. The survey is conducted and prepared by the Platts market news editors, but the views are those of non-Platts market analysts. The survey includes 15 to 25 analysts, some on a rotational basis. This differs from the weekly pre-report analyst survey of EIA/API US oil stocks data conducted each week by Platts Senior Oil Analyst Linda Rafield, which does include the views of Platts’ oil analyst Linda Rafield.
About Platts: Platts, a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies (NYSE: MHP), is a leading global provider of energy and commodities information. With a century of business experience, Platts serves customers across more than 150 countries. An independent provider, Platts serves the oil, natural gas, electricity, emissions, nuclear power, coal, petrochemicals, shipping, and metals markets from 17 offices worldwide. Platts' real-time news, pricing, analytical services and conferences help markets operate with transparency and efficiency. Traders, risk managers, analysts, and industry leaders depend upon Platts to help them make better trading and investment decisions. Additional information is available at http://www.platts.com.
About The McGraw-Hill Companies: Founded in 1888, The McGraw-Hill Companies (NYSE: MHP) is a leading global information services provider meeting worldwide needs in the financial services, education and business information markets through leading brands such as Standard & Poor's, McGraw-Hill Education, Platts, Capital IQ, J.D. Power and Associates, McGraw-Hill Construction and Aviation Week. The Corporation has more than 280 offices in 40 countries. Sales in 2008 were $6.4 billion. Additional information is available at www.mcgraw-hill.com.