The Platts pre-report analyst survey suggests US EIA data will show a 143-to 147 Bcf withdrawal in natural gas stocks for the latest reporting week
Washington - December 30, 2009
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is expected Thursday to report a withdrawal of 143 to 147 billion cubic feet (Bcf) to net natural gas storage for the week ended December 25, according to a Platts survey of analysts.
A drawdown within those expectations would be about the same as last year's 144-Bcf pull, but larger than the five-year-average withdrawal of 120 Bcf, according to EIA. As a result, the 359-Bcf surplus over last year should remain about the same and the 395-Bcf surplus over the five-year average should contract.
The wider range of withdrawal estimates for the week ended December 25 is from 134 Bcf to 160 Bcf.
Kent Bayazitoglu, director of market analytics at Gelber & Associates, said it now appears that the 207 withdrawal for the week that ended December 11 was an aberration, since last week the market followed up with a more normal 166-Bcf draw.
"Gas consumers and market bears breathed a sigh of relief," he said. "It's pretty clear that the weather will stay very cold for at least the next few weeks, thus producing significant withdrawals. However, the magnitude of these withdrawals relative to weather gives important clarity to the supply/demand picture. These next withdrawals will be watched closely."
Martin King, vice president of Institutional Research at FirstEnergy Capital, said temperatures have remained near normal and look to be tilting to below normal, helping to keep pressure on the market.
"Even with the holidays in hand for this latest report, we are still expecting a withdrawal above the five-year historic trend as our weather-adjusted balances are suggesting that the market is tighter on the order of 3 Bcf/day versus one year ago," he said, but he added that he is convinced this is driven more by demand than supply.
"With two more storage reports to come for the month of December, withdrawals are on track for the one of the largest cumulative withdrawals for the month in the past decade," he said. "Depending on temperatures, withdrawals could top 700 Bcf making it the third, or potentially, second largest withdrawal for December on record.".
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This analyst survey is conducted by Platts’ editorial team in Washington DC and is published every Wednesday morning, one day ahead of the 10:30 am (EST) Thursday release of the weekly natural gas storage report of the US Energy Information Administration. Platts has been conducting this survey since January 2007. IMPORTANT NOTE TO EDITORS: The survey results attached above do not contain commentary from a Platts staff member. The survey is conducted and prepared by the Platts market news editors, but the views are those of non-Platts market analysts. The survey includes 15 to 25 analysts, some on a rotational basis. This differs from the weekly pre-report analyst survey of EIA/API US oil stocks data conducted each week by Platts Senior Oil Analyst Linda Rafield, which does include the views of Platts’ oil analyst Linda Rafield.
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