The Platts pre-report analyst survey suggests US EIA data will show a 121- to 125 Bcf withdrawal in natural gas stocks
Washington - February 10, 2010
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is expected Friday to report a net withdrawal of 177 to 181 billion cubic feet (Bcf) from natural gas storage for the week that ended February 5, according to a Platts survey of analysts.
The EIA report will be issued on Friday, February 12, delayed one day due to the weather-related closing of the federal government.
A withdrawal within expectations would be larger than both the 164-Bcf drawdown last year and the five-year-average pull of 155 Bcf, according to EIA. As a result, the year-on-year surplus of 199 Bcf and the 150-Bcf surplus over the five-year average each should shrink.
Beyond the consensus, the wider range of analyst estimates spanned from a drawdown of 160 Bcf to 202 Bcf.
SunTrust Robinson Humphrey analyst John Gerdes said near-term weather outlooks "continue to paint a bullish picture," with below-normal temperatures likely to linger in the eastern U.S. through the end of February.
"Recent price action suggests the market may be under-appreciating the storage implications of this month's outlook," Gerdes said. "If recent weather forecasts come to fruition, 500-plus Bcf is likely to come out of storage over the next three weeks, which suggests we could enter March at a near 100-Bcf [year-on-year] storage deficit."
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This analyst survey is conducted by Platts’ editorial team in Washington DC and is published every Wednesday morning, one day ahead of the 10:30 am (EST) Thursday release of the weekly natural gas storage report of the US Energy Information Administration. Platts has been conducting this survey since January 2007. IMPORTANT NOTE TO EDITORS: The survey results attached above do not contain commentary from a Platts staff member. The survey is conducted and prepared by the Platts market news editors, but the views are those of non-Platts market analysts. The survey includes 15 to 25 analysts, some on a rotational basis. This differs from the weekly pre-report analyst survey of EIA/API US oil stocks data conducted each week by Platts Senior Oil Analyst Linda Rafield, which does include the views of Platts’ oil analyst Linda Rafield.
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