The Platts pre-report analyst survey suggests US EIA data will show a 168-to-172-Bcf withdrawal in natural gas stocks
Washington - February 24, 2010
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is expected Thursday to report a net withdrawal of 168 to 172 billion cubic feet (Bcf) from natural gas storage for the week that ended February 19, according to a Platts survey of analysts.
A withdrawal within those expectations would be larger than both the 90-Bcf drawdown last year and the five-year-average pull of 132 Bcf, according to EIA. As a result, the year-on-year surplus of 26 Bcf and the 53-Bcf surplus over the five-year average both should flip to deficits.
Beyond the consensus, the broader range of analyst estimates spans from a drawdown of 145 Bcf to 178 Bcf.
Martin King, an analyst at FirstEnergy Capital who is predicting a pull of 170 Bcf, said temperatures were milder last week than in the prior week (when EIA reported a 190 Bcf draw), and that the President's Day holiday in the U.S. also dampened gas demand.
King said he still sees the market running about 3 Bcf/d tighter than a year ago on a weather-adjusted basis, and "we expect this tightness to continue and transfer into a slower-than-average injection season."
# # #
This analyst survey is conducted by Platts’ editorial team in Washington DC and is published every Wednesday morning, one day ahead of the 10:30 am (EST) Thursday release of the weekly natural gas storage report of the US Energy Information Administration. Platts has been conducting this survey since January 2007. IMPORTANT NOTE TO EDITORS: The survey results attached above do not contain commentary from a Platts staff member. The survey is conducted and prepared by the Platts market news editors, but the views are those of non-Platts market analysts. The survey includes 15 to 25 analysts, some on a rotational basis. This differs from the weekly pre-report analyst survey of EIA/API US oil stocks data conducted each week by Platts Senior Oil Analyst Linda Rafield, which does include the views of Platts’ oil analyst Linda Rafield.
About Platts: Platts, a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies (NYSE: MHP), is a leading global provider of energy and commodities information. With a century of business experience, Platts serves customers across more than 150 countries. An independent provider, Platts serves the oil, natural gas, electricity, emissions, nuclear power, coal, petrochemicals, shipping, and metals markets from 17 offices worldwide. Platts' real-time news, pricing, analytical services and conferences help markets operate with transparency and efficiency. Traders, risk managers, analysts, and industry leaders depend upon Platts to help them make better trading and investment decisions. Additional information is available at http://www.platts.com.
About The McGraw-Hill Companies: Founded in 1888, The McGraw-Hill Companies (NYSE: MHP) is a leading global information services provider meeting worldwide needs in the financial services, education and business information markets through leading brands such as Standard & Poor's, McGraw-Hill Education, Platts, Capital IQ, J.D. Power and Associates, McGraw-Hill Construction and Aviation Week. The Corporation has more than 280 offices in 40 countries. Sales in 2008 were $6.4 billion. Additional information is available at www.mcgraw-hill.com.