Analysis of US EIA data: US crude oil stocks build, Cushing declines on week
New York - June 2, 2010
U.S. commercial crude oil stocks rose a larger-than-expected 2.46 million barrels to 365.146 million barrels, a one-year high, but the entire inventory increase was concentrated on the largely disconnected West Coast, an analysis of the weekly oil data released Wednesday by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed.
Analysts polled by Platts had projected an increase of 100,000 barrels.
Crude stocks on the West Coast increased 2.255 million barrels to 56.782 million barrels with a 159,000 barrel per day (b/d) jump in imports in that region contributing to the build.
At 365.146 million barrels, U.S. crude stocks were 25.896 million barrels above the five-year average and 2.035 million barrels above year-ago levels. This was the first time since the second week of January that U.S. crude stocks sported a surplus against year-ago levels.
While U.S. crude stocks increased, inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma – home of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) futures contracts delivery point – edged down 324,000 barrels to 37.621 million barrels, the first time there has been a draw in this region in 10 weeks.
Total U.S. oil stocks increased 5.8 million barrels to 1.0932 billion barrels, leaving inventories 76.896 million barrels above the five-year average and 5.658 million barrels above year-ago levels.
While U.S. product stocks increased 3.374 million barrels to 728.012 million barrels, inventories of both gasoline and distillates drew, falling 203,000 barrels to 221.631 million barrels and 267,000 barrels to 152.453 million barrels, respectively.
Lower refinery output and a steady pace of demand were behind the declines in gasoline and distillate stocks. Offsetting the declines in gasoline and distillate stocks were builds in residual fuel oils, propane and propylene, unfinished and "other" oils.
At 221.631 million barrels, gasoline stocks were 14.911 million barrels above the five-year average and 18.214 million barrels above year-ago levels, which can be considered fairly plush surpluses as driving season gets under way and yields languish at mediocre 58.34%.
Typically implied demand* ebbs at the end May as gasoline should have already moved through the distribution system ahead of Memorial Day weekend and winter fuels are no longer used. U.S. oil demand was a steady 19.713 million b/d, and on a four-week moving average at 19.526 million b/d was 1.234 million b/d above year-ago levels, a sign of a rebounding, but jobless recovery.
Gasoline demand on a four-week moving average at 9.153 million b/d was 2,000 b/d above year-ago levels while distillate demand, what is most closely correlated with the economy, at 3.973 million b/d was 386,000 b/d above year-ago levels.
*Implied demand is the amount of product that moves through the U.S. distribution system, not actual end consumption.
# # #
This analyst survey is conducted by Platts’ editorial team in Washington DC and is published every Wednesday morning, one day ahead of the 10:30 am (EST) Thursday release of the weekly natural gas storage report of the US Energy Information Administration. Platts has been conducting this survey since January 2007. IMPORTANT NOTE TO EDITORS: The survey results attached above do not contain commentary from a Platts staff member. The survey is conducted and prepared by the Platts market news editors, but the views are those of non-Platts market analysts. The survey includes 15 to 25 analysts, some on a rotational basis. This differs from the weekly pre-report analyst survey of EIA/API US oil stocks data conducted each week by Platts editors, which does include the views of Platts’ editors.
About Platts: Platts, a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies (NYSE: MHP), is a leading global provider of energy and commodities information. With a century of business experience, Platts serves customers across more than 150 countries. An independent provider, Platts serves the oil, natural gas, electricity, emissions, nuclear power, coal, petrochemicals, shipping, and metals markets from 17 offices worldwide. Platts' real-time news, pricing, analytical services and conferences help markets operate with transparency and efficiency. Traders, risk managers, analysts, and industry leaders depend upon Platts to help them make better trading and investment decisions. Additional information is available at http://www.platts.com.
About The McGraw-Hill Companies: Founded in 1888, The McGraw-Hill Companies (NYSE: MHP) is a leading global information services provider meeting worldwide needs in the financial services, education and business information markets through leading brands such as Standard & Poor's, McGraw-Hill Education, Platts, Capital IQ, J.D. Power and Associates, McGraw-Hill Construction and Aviation Week. The Corporation has more than 280 offices in 40 countries. Sales in 2008 were $6.4 billion. Additional information is available at www.mcgraw-hill.com.