Platts report: China's oil demand in June hits new high, up 10% from year ago

Singapore - July 21, 2010

China's apparent* oil demand in June hits yet another record high, at 36.74 million metric tons (mt) or about 8.98 million barrels per day (b/d), according to the just released Platts analysis of official data from the People’s Republic of China. The June demand figure is up 10% from a year ago and it eclipses the previous high of 36.48 million mt established in May 2010 by 0.7%.

China’s net oil product imports this June rebounded from recent lows, even as Chinese refiners maintained high crude throughput in their plants, the analysis shows.

Meanwhile, China's apparent oil demand in the first half of 2010 jumped 13% to 210.81 million mt from the corresponding period of 2009, Platts reports. The January-June average was 8.54 million b/d.

Chinese refiners in June processed a total 35.35 million mt of crude oil, or an average 8.64 million b/d, according to data recently released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics. Thus, crude throughput is up 11% from a year ago, but is down 1.2% from the historic high of 35.79 million mt in May 2010.

"The recent gradual appreciation of the renminbi versus the U.S. dollar makes Chinese imports of refined products relatively cheaper and exports relatively less attractive,” said Vandana Hari, Platts’ Asia editorial director. “But it remains to be seen whether the June climb in net oil product imports represents the start of a trend.”

"Chinese oil demand growth is being led by sizable increases in production and consumption of naphtha – a feedstock for petrochemicals – and of jet fuel/kerosene and gasoil,” Hari said. “The rise in gasoline consumption is trailing well behind these products, a somewhat puzzling phenomenon in the face of runaway growth in the country's car sales,” she notes.

"This seeming anomaly, and the continued lack of reliable official data on demand and oil stocks from China, is once again prompting some unease, with the International Energy Agency earlier this month suggesting that either implied Chinese oil demand data for previous years is inaccurate, or the country's gross domestic product numbers inflated," Hari explains.

China's net refined oil product imports rebounded to 1.39 million mt in June from 0.69 million mt in May. But compared to a year ago, net refined oil product imports were down 2.8%.

For the January-June 2010 period, Chinese imports of refined products totaled 19.86 million mt, down nearly 10% from a year ago. Meanwhile, product exports were 14.77 million mt for the January-June 2010 period, marking a 35% increase from the year-ago period. China’s crude imports in the first semester of 2010 were up 30% from a year ago to 117.96 million mt.

	June '10	June '09	% Chg	May '10	Apr. '10	Mar. '10	Feb. '10
Net crude imports	22.14	16.31	+35.74	17.65	20.98	20.78	18.29
Crude production	16.88	15.71	+ 7.45	17.16	16.26	16.91	15.11
Apparent demand*	36.74	33.35	+10.16	36.48	35.42	35.25	33.28

*Platts calculates China's apparent or implied oil demand on the basis of crude throughput volumes at the domestic refineries and net oil product imports, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics and Chinese customs.

The government releases data on imports, exports, domestic crude production and refinery throughput data, but does not give official data on the country's actual oil consumption figure and oil stockpiles. Official statistics on oil storage are released intermittently.

Platts releases its monthly calculation of China's apparent demand between the 18th and 26th of every month via press release and via its website. Any use of this information must be appropriately attributed to Platts.

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