The Platts pre-report survey of analysts’ EIA/API estimates suggest a draw of 730,000 barrels in US crude oil stocks
Platts Survey of Analysts
- Crude oil stocks down 730,000 barrels
- Gasoline stocks down 820,000 barrels
- Distillates stocks up 940,000 barrels
- Refinery utilization or run rate down 0.62 percentage point to 86.38%
New York - September 7, 2010
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and American Petroleum Institute (API) this week are expected to report a U.S. crude oil stock draw of 730,000 barrels for the week ending September 3, according to analysts polled by Platts Tuesday.
Data will be released one day late this week because of a US Labor Day holiday on Monday. API is scheduled to release its weekly data at 4:30 pm EDT (2030 GMT) Wednesday. EIA's weekly oil statistics will be released at 11:00 am EDT (1430 GMT) Thursday.
A stock draw would fit within historical trends. Stocks typically fall this time of year because of the hurricane season.
"This is the time of year when imports fall due to increasing shipping disruptions caused by the Atlantic hurricane season, as well as projected maintenance on oil platforms," said MF Global Tom Pawlicki in a report. "A drop in OPEC shipments was confirmed by Oil Movements, which said that seaborne shipments would fall 240 kb/d in the four weeks ending Saturday."
But the stock draw will likely fall short of the five-year average, which shows a 5.5 million barrel draw, according to the EIA's weekly data. That average contains unusually large declines related to Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005, and Hurricane Gustav in 2008. A 6.5 million barrel draw was reported the week ending September 2, 2005, for instance.
This year's hurricane season has been comparatively calm so far, with Hurricane Earl last week having little impact on oil industry operations. While imports may have fallen last week, analysts expect a fall in refinery runs, which should limit any crude draws.
Analysts project refinery operations to fall 0.62 percentage points to 86.38% of capacity, based on the EIA’s data from the week ending Aug. 27.
US gasoline stocks are expected to fall 820,000 barrels, while distillate stocks are projected by analysts to come in 940,000 barrels higher, both following historic trends. The five-year average shows U.S. gasoline stocks on a down trend starting in mid-July. This year, however, stocks for the most part have been rising, as production and imports have outpaced sluggish demand.
Gasoline stocks the week ending August 27 were 27.18 million barrels above the five-year average, according to the weekly EIA data. Even a one-million-barrel draw for the week ending September 3 would leave that surplus intact.
US distillate stocks are sporting a healthy surplus as well. An expected 940,000 barrel stock build would leave the current 35.3 million barrel surplus intact.
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