Platts pre-report analyst survey suggests US EIA data will show an 56- to 60-Bcf addition in natural gas stocks

Washington - September 8, 2010

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) is expected Thursday to report a net injection of 56 to 60 billion cubic feet (Bcf) to natural gas storage for the week that ended September 3, according to a Platts survey of analysts.

A build within that range would be smaller than both the 68-Bcf build for the comparable week of 2009 and the five-year-average of 61 Bcf, according to the EIA. As a result, the 208-Bcf deficit to last year is likely to expand, while the 169-Bcf surplus over the five-year average is expected to shrink.

Beyond the consensus, the broader range of analyst estimates for the latest reporting week spanned from injections of 50 Bcf to 66 Bcf.

Citi Futures Perspective analyst Tim Evans noted that the gas market has been largely immune to the storage trend, which has featured below-average injections for 11 straight weeks.

"Between May 7 and August 27, the year-on-five year average storage surplus has been reduced from 325 Bcf to 169 Bcf and our forecast has it dipping and then bobbing back up to 171 Bcf as of September 17," he said. “Over the intermediate term, a reduction of the storage surplus on this scale normally supports a rally in prices, but the market has been falling since mid-June instead."

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This analyst survey is conducted by Platts’ editorial team in Washington, DC and is published every Wednesday morning, one day ahead of the 10:30 a.m. (ET) Thursday release of the weekly natural gas storage report of the U. Energy Information Administration. Platts has been conducting this survey since January 2007. The survey includes 15 to 25 analysts, some on a rotational basis.

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