Platts pre-report analyst survey suggests US EIA data will show an 88- to 92-Bcf addition in natural gas stocks

Washington - September 15, 2010

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is expected Thursday to report a net injection of 88 to 92 billion cubic feet (Bcf) to natural gas storage for the week that ended September 10, according to a Platts survey of analysts.

A build within that range would be larger than both the 67 Bcf reported in the comparable week of 2009 and the five-year-average of 77 Bcf, according to the EIA. As a result, the 218-Bcf deficit to last year is expected to narrow, while the 166-Bcf surplus over the five-year average will likely expand after 12 weeks consecutive weeks of contraction.

Beyond the consensus, the broader range of analyst estimates for the week that ended September 10 spanned from injections of 73 Bcf to 100 Bcf.

Kent Bayazitoglu, market analyst at Gelber & Associates, said last week’s weather was the mildest since late May, which kept demand low and freed up a lot of gas for storage injection.

"With the heat broken, expect to see large injections for the next month," he said. "The mild weather conditions that the country is now experiencing are a great time to gauge the supply/demand balance. However, in the next few weeks storage availability will become a factor" as facilities begin to reach capacity.

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This analyst survey is conducted by Platts’ editorial team in Washington, DC and is published every Wednesday morning, one day ahead of the 10:30 a.m. (ET) Thursday release of the weekly natural gas storage report of the U. Energy Information Administration. Platts has been conducting this survey since January 2007. The survey includes 15 to 25 analysts, some on a rotational basis.

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