The Platts pre-report survey of analysts’ EIA/API estimates suggest a build of 2.2 million barrels in US crude oil stocks
Platts Survey of Analysts
- Crude oil stocks up 2.2 million barrels
- Gasoline stocks up 800,000
- Distillates stocks up 400,000 barrels
- Refinery utilization, or run rate, down 0.7 percentage point to 87.1%
New York - September 27, 2010
Weekly oil data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the American Petroleum Institute (API) is expected to show a build of approximately 2.2 million barrels in US commercial crude oil stocks for the reporting week ended September 24, analysts polled by Platts said Monday.
API is scheduled to release its weekly data at 4:30 p.m. EDT (2030 GMT) Tuesday. EIA's weekly oil statistics will be released at 10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT) Wednesday.
Analysts polled by Platts expect a drop in crude imports to outpace an anticipated drop in refinery runs, leading to the crude stock draw.
“Historically, crude stocks build throughout maintenance season as distillation units are taken down and fewer barrels are run through facilities,” said Linda Rafield, Platts senior oil analyst and editor of the weekly Futures and Derivatives Review, a supplement to Oilgram Price Report.
Analysts expect refinery inputs to decline 0.7 percentage point to 87.1%, based on the EIA data from the week that ended September 17. In addition, on September 21 ConocoPhillips began maintenance on its 238,000-barrel-per-day (b/d) Bayway refinery which is based in Linden, New Jersey.
Gasoline stocks are projected to increase 800,000 barrels. The recent drop-off in implied gasoline demand* has been conducive to stock-building. Over the past four weeks, gasoline demand has dropped 539,000 b/d to 8.887 million b/d, according to data from EIA. “Gasoline inventories generally decline throughout turnarounds as lower output trumps the drop in demand,” said Rafield.
Analysts expect stocks of middle distillates to build 400,000 barrels. “With refiners having switched yields in favor of distillates over gasoline, inventories should be able to eke out another increase before cooler temperatures along the key-consuming Atlantic Coast and refinery maintenance start to erode stocks,” Rafield added.
*Implied demand is the amount of product that moves through the US distribution system, not actual end consumption.
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