Platts pre-report analyst survey suggests US EIA data will show an 70- to 74-Bcf addition in natural gas stocks

Washington - October 27, 2010

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is expected Thursday to report a net injection of 70 to 74 billion cubic feet (Bcf) to natural gas storage for the week that ended October 22, according to a Platts survey of analysts.

A build within that range would be larger than the 24-Bcf build in the comparable week of 2009 and the five-year-average of 45 Bcf, according to EIA data. As a result, the 48-Bcf deficit to last year's total is expected to shrink, while the 286-Bcf surplus over the five-year average is likely to expand.

Beyond the consensus, analyst estimates for the latest reporting week ranged from builds of 63 Bcf to 92 Bcf.

"Although weather conditions did cool off compared to the previous week, financial drivers are still very much in place to promote storage operators to put gas in the ground," said FirstEnergy Capital analyst Martin King. "As such, our forecast has another record injection for this time of the year for the producing region."

King said that until there is a modest rebound in near-month gas prices or some much colder weather arrives, robust storage injections will continue.

"Given our forecast, the year-over-year storage deficit will be eliminated, sending storage to record highs for this time of the year, while the surplus to the five-year average storage level should widen closer to where it was back in May," he said.

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This analyst survey is conducted by Platts’ editorial team in Washington, DC and is published every Wednesday morning, one day ahead of the 10:30 a.m. (ET) Thursday release of the weekly natural gas storage report of the U. Energy Information Administration. Platts has been conducting this survey since January 2007. The survey includes 15 to 25 analysts, some on a rotational basis.

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