The Platts pre-report survey of analysts’ EIA/API estimates suggest a build of 2.1 million barrels in US crude oil stocks
Platts Survey of Analysts
- Crude oil stocks up 2.1 million barrels
- Gasoline stocks down 1.3 million barrels
- Distillates stocks down 2 million barrels
- Refinery utilization, or run rate, up 0.4 percentage point to 82.2%
New York - November 8, 2010
Weekly oil data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the American Petroleum Institute (API) is expected to show a build of approximately 2.1 million barrels in U.S. commercial crude stocks for the reporting week ended November 5, analysts polled by Platts said Monday.
API is scheduled to release its weekly data at 4:30 p.m. ET (2030 GMT) Tuesday. EIA's weekly oil statistics will be released at 10:30 a.m. ET (1430 GMT) Wednesday.
“Crude imports would have to continue to decline at a pace seen in the previous week's report in order for inventories to draw, given that inputs to refineries are below 14 million barrels per day (b/d),” said Linda Rafield, Platts senior oil analyst and editor of the weekly Platts Futures and Derivatives Review, a supplement to Platts’ Oilgram Price Report. The EIA reported an 885,000 b/d drop in U.S. crude imports for the week that ended October 29, and this is not likely to be repeated.
Even the expected 0.4-percentage-point refinery utilization increase to 82.2%, based on last week's EIA report, will likely not be a large enough increase to swing supply/demand balances by very much.
Analysts expect gasoline stocks to decline 1.3 million barrels. “While last week's 9.015 million b/d pace of demand was in line with seasonal tendencies, a low level of output due to maintenance will likely keep inventories on a declining trend,” Rafield said.
Analysts project middle distillate stocks to decrease 2 million barrels. The arrival of more seasonal temperatures along the Atlantic Coast - the key consuming region for heating oil - should push implied demand* for middle distillates higher.
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