The Platts pre-report survey of analysts’ EIA/API estimates suggest a draw of 1.9 million barrels in US crude oil stocks
Platts Survey of Analysts
- Crude oil stocks down 1.9 million barrels
- Gasoline stocks down 500,000 barrels
- Distillates stocks down 870,000 barrels
- Refinery utilization, or run rate, up 0.33 percentage point to 84.33%
New York - November 22, 2010
Weekly oil data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the American Petroleum Institute (API) is expected to show a draw of about 1.9 million barrels in U.S. commercial crude oil stocks for the reporting week ended November 19, analysts polled by Platts said Monday.
API is scheduled to release its weekly data at 4:30 p.m. ET (2130 GMT) Tuesday. EIA's weekly oil statistics will be released at 10:30 a.m. ET (1530 GMT) Wednesday.
The five-year average shows crude stocks building, but most analysts expect recent draws to continue. "Additional pressure is likely to come from the probability of low bookings in light of high inventories that existed a few weeks ago when those shipments would have been arranged," said MF Global analyst Tom Pawlicki in a report. "Oil stocks are currently 33.26 [million barrels] above their five-year average, but were 44.60 [million barrels] above it just two weeks ago when inventories were at their highest levels of the year."
Not all analysts are looking for a draw, however.
"Crude supplies are expected to show a slight increase as imports likely rose from the prior week's unsustainably slow pace of less than 7.9 [million barrels per day (b/d)]," said independent analyst Jim Ritterbusch in a report.
U.S. crude oil imports at 7.864 million b/d the week ended November 12 were 1.62 million b/d below the five-year average, the EIA's data showed. It is possible that additional barrels have been shipped to satisfy the increase in refinery runs.
U.S. refinery utilization has climbed to 84% of capacity from 81.8% between the weeks ended October 29 and November 12, according to the EIA. Analysts polled by Platts are looking for runs to climb another 0.33 percentage points to 84.33%.
In the products, analysts expect U.S. gasoline stocks to fall 500,000 barrels and distillate stocks to decline 870,000 barrels.
Since the end of September, U.S. gasoline stocks have fallen 18.379 million barrels to 207.679 million barrels, while distillate stocks have declined 14.797 million barrels to 158.792 million barrels. The draws are likely a result of low imports and high exports stemming from the French refinery strikes in October.
Most analysts polled by Platts project the product stock draws to continue, although with Europe now well-supplied U.S. imports could soon begin to pick up, while the increase in U.S. refinery runs is expected to lead to higher production.
"We look for gasoline stocks to post a small build as imports likely registered a modest gain while demand likely bumped back to above the 9 [million b/d] level," said Ritterbusch.
# # #
About Platts: Platts, a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies (NYSE: MHP), is a leading global provider of energy and commodities information. With a century of business experience, Platts serves customers across more than 150 countries. An independent provider, Platts serves the oil, natural gas, electricity, emissions, nuclear power, coal, petrochemicals, shipping, and metals markets from 17 offices worldwide. Platts' real-time news, pricing, analytical services and conferences help markets operate with transparency and efficiency. Traders, risk managers, analysts, and industry leaders depend upon Platts to help them make better business decisions.
About The McGraw-Hill Companies:Founded in 1888, The McGraw-Hill Companies (NYSE: MHP) is a global information and education company providing knowledge, insights and analysis in the financial, education and business information sectors through leading brands including Standard & Poor's, McGraw-Hill Education, Platts, and J.D. Power and Associates. The Corporation has more than 280 offices in 40 countries. Sales in 2009 were $5.95 billion. Additional information is available at www.mcgraw-hill.com.