The Platts pre-report survey of analysts’ EIA/API estimates suggest a draw of 1.5 million barrels in US crude oil stocks
Platts Survey of Analysts
- Crude oil stocks down 1.5 million barrels
- Gasoline stocks down 1.4 barrels
- Distillates stocks down 400,000 barrels
- Refinery utilization, or run rate, up 0.44 percentage point to 85.94%
New York - November 29, 2010
Weekly oil data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the American Petroleum Institute (API) is expected to show a draw of approximately 1.5 million barrels in US commercial crude oil stocks for the reporting week ended November 26, analysts polled by Platts said Monday.
API is scheduled to release its weekly data at 4:30 pm EST (2130 GMT) Tuesday. EIA's weekly oil statistics will be released at 10:30 am EST (1530 GMT) Wednesday.
A crude oil stock draw would follow recent patterns, and the five-year average shows stocks trending lower until early January. The EIA showed a crude oil stock build of 1.029 million barrels the week ended November 12, but that build stemmed from a surge in imports that is unlikely to be repeated. Of the 1.16 million barrels per day (b/d) increase in imports, 552,000 b/d arrived on the US West Coast, a region prone to volatile swings in imports.
Even if imports remain high, the expected increase in refinery utilization would likely boost demand for crude. Analysts polled by Platts project refinery utilization to climb 0.44 percentage point to 85.94% of capacity, based on the EIA data for the week that ended November 19.
In refined products, analysts expect US gasoline stocks to rise 1.4 million barrels and distillate stocks to draw 400,000 barrels.
"Distillate stocks should indicate a moderate decline as implied demand* likely rebounded further in response to colder temperatures," independent analyst Jim Ritterbusch said in a report. "However, supply draws were likely tempered by some additional slowing in export movement toward Europe."
Distillate stocks fell 12.56 million barrels between the weeks ending October 1 and November 5 as barrels headed to Europe to cover a shortage created by widespread French refinery strikes. The pace of the weekly stock draws has slowed as Europe's needs have been met, with inventories the week ended November 19 down just 541,000 barrels, according to the EIA.
Some analysts are looking for a slight increase in distillate stocks the week ended November 26, which would fit with recent trends. The five-year average of the EIA data shows distillate stocks building to mid-January.
The five-year average also shows US gasoline stocks rising, in line with the analysts’ expected increase of 1.4 million barrels. Gasoline imports were likely higher the week ended November 26, and high prices on the US Atlantic Coast lured barrels over from Europe, while production should have gotten a lift as refiners bolstered runs.
But "[d]emand likely limited the expected stock build as off-take may have been bumped back up toward 9 [million b/d] in conjunction with the holiday," Ritterbusch said.
*Implied demand is the amount of product that moves through the US distribution system, not actual end consumption.
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