Platts pre-report analyst survey suggests US EIA data will a 159- to 163-Bcf withdrawal in natural gas stocks
Washington - December 15, 2010
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) is expected Thursday to report a withdrawal of between 159 and 163 billion cubic feet (Bcf) from gas storage stocks for the week ending December 10, according to a Platts survey of analysts.
A drawdown within those estimates would be smaller than the 186-Bcf draw in the same week of 2009 but larger than the five-year-average of 153 Bcf. As a result, both the 57-Bcf storage deficit to last year’s level and the five-year-average surplus of 332 Bcf are expected to narrow.
Beyond the consensus, analyst estimates for the latest reporting week range from withdrawals of 149 Bcf to 173 Bcf.
Subash Chandra, an analyst at Jefferies & Company, said the weather last week was 19% colder than normal and 4% colder than last year, which caused gas demand to spike and created a run on stored gas.
Tim Evans, an analyst at Citi Futures Perspective, said withdrawals over the next three weeks are likely to outpace the five-year average, which he expects to drop to around 225 Bcf by December 31.
"By that date storage would also be 10 Bcf lower than last year," he predicted.
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This analyst survey is conducted by Platts’ editorial team in Washington, DC and is published every Wednesday morning, one day ahead of the 10:30 a.m. (ET) Thursday release of the weekly natural gas storage report of the U. Energy Information Administration. Platts has been conducting this survey since January 2007. The survey includes 15 to 25 analysts, some on a rotational basis.
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